I always look forward to this time of year. The stifling heat of the summer finally subsides to cooler winds and gray skies and the nakedness of the trees. Plus, I like wearing jackets. Let's face it, it was hard to wear jackets in Los Angeles unless it was raining or it was a suit jacket and I was going to Nobu. Even though I'm not crazy about Halloween, the tail end of October and the opening of November is one of my favorite parts of the year. There's a special feeling in the air - it's not quite Christmastime yet and it's not quite Thanksgiving, but the smell of nutmeg and roasted turkey is in the air. And every sport is going - the important ones, anyway - Football in the meat of the season, the world series is starting up, hockey has just started and the great basketball egg has been cracked right onto the sizzling fantasy skillet. That's right, ladies and gentlemen, fantasy basketball is BACK.
I have two leagues this year, a far cry from the previous years with 4-5 different teams, and I have a good feeling about them. My keeper league draft commences tonight at 10pm and I drafted my other league yesterday. Here's my insights after my first rotisserie draft: (9 categories - fg%, ft%, 3s, pts, boards, dimes, steals, blocks, TOs [negative cat.])
Every year there is a lack of a specific category. It's usually blocks. Ever since I started playing back in my Sophomore year of college blocks were the holy grail of categories. If you were winning blocks, you were probably winning the league. That's during Garnett's prime and Duncan and Nowitzski's emergence as top five players in the league - like 2002ish. At time time Garnett was putting up insanely gaudy numbers - 24, 15 and 6 with a steal and block and a half. Something like that. He was the consensus first pick for years. Which is why it was weird seeing him go almost undrafted yesterday, in the 11th or 12th round - and that's across the universe of webspace not just in my league or in the US. Shawn Marion is another good example of an old powerhouse who inexplicably cooled. Cooled isn't even the word. More like froze to death. Marion was the guy who always was drafted top 3 or 5 by the guy who had a plan and was really competitive. Guys that drafted Marion knew the secret math behind fantasy success before the roto-nerds invented the algorithms used to analyze players' individual fantasy contributions and value. In my leagues, my friend Eric always drafted him and I always passed on him. I prefer explosive players. I like my players to be exciting and provocative. I like Kobe (in real life and in fantasy.) Marion was boring but was a fantasy monster, never hurting your categories - always helping in multiple ones. One particularly ridiculous year (2006-2007), Shawn Marion won the distinction of having more three pointers, blocks and steals (in each of those categories) than total turn overs. In other words, he averaged 1.2 threes, 2.0 steals, and 1.5 blocks a game while averaging just 1.0 turnovers. Insane statistic. And he did all this and still managed incredible percentages, 17 points and 10ish rebounds a game. He came close to this feat MANY times but only accomplished it this one year. Insane. Anyway, Shawn Marion went undrafted this year in my first league. Mostly because he's now on the Dallas Mavericks where great players go to die. I can't think of one player off the top of my head that got BETTER once he went to Dallas. Not one. But I digress...
So as I was saying - there's always a category that's hard to find, and this year, I think it's three pointers and, to some extent, points scored. A couple years ago, it was impossible to find guys on the waiver wire that could contribute to your point total. Not one of the players scored more than nine points a game. It was crazy. This year I don't think it's quite as bad, but I think it will be challenging to stay competitive in points if you draft a more than two players who don't score very much, like Marcus Camby or another low scoring center. Ben Wallace used to be the ultimate example of the valuable low scoring center, (he never averaged more than 10 points a game) but has averaged 10.2 rebounds and over 2 blocks a game over his 15 year NBA career. So while he used to be a huge help in a few categories, he murdered you in a bunch of others.
So other than points, I noticed a lack of threes out there in the draft pool. It used to be that I looked for certain categories from certain positions. For my rebounds, blocks and fg%, I draft my centers. For my points, assists, steals, ft%, I draft my guards. And my forwards do everything else. I remember during one my first years playing, my friend Kyle had a team that was last place in assists and threes. He made a bunch of (suspicious) trades - his good forwards for all of the guards in the league - and within a few weeks he was leading the league in three pointers and assists. It was that easy.
Nowadays its a little more complicated. Just as the advertising world is starting to expect Designers who can Art Direct or Programmers who can Design, etc., the NBA has evolved over the last decade. Players like Lebron James (heard of him have you?) basically play every position. Magic Johnson did it for one game - Lebron does it EVERY game - at least statistically. Troy Murphy, a forward/center now on the nets used to be known as a pure rebounder. Now, he hits two threes a game playing the 5. Conversely, there are guards in the league that are known purely for their passing and driving ability. It started back in the day with Steve Francis who averaged good boards for a point guard (5.5ish) and nominal assists (7-8) but never shot the three. He was still an amazing fantasy player, but if he shot the three he could've been elite. Tony Parker has has attempted 1.6 threes per game over his 10 year career. Of those attempted, he makes roughly half a three per game. Rajon Rondo, an up and coming point guard on the Celtics attempts .6 a three per game. Pretty interesting, considering that the majority of guards in the league DO shoot the three and LOVE to do so. Rondo is even more provocative of a player because he's proven he CAN shoot the three - as evidenced by the terribly directed HORSE competition during this year's All-Star Weekend in which he and Kevin Durant (arguably the best player currently in the NBA) traded 15 back to back threes from the top of the key.
Don't get me wrong - there are threes available out there in the free agent pile, but none of the available players are worthwhile because while they average in points what they make in threes - and that's bad.
Okay keeper league draft starting. ..
I'm planning on doing a rundown of the teams for this NBA season this week - I'm going to try to be less confusing in the posts to follow. I think I confused myself with this one.
Madness, indeed.
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